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Supply side: Mines struggle to increase production, with frequent unexpected incidents.
In October 2025, the global copper market is experiencing an unprecedented battle between supply and demand. From open-pit mines in Chile’s Andes Mountains to copper-processing workshops in China’s Yangtze River Delta, and from the electronic trading platforms of the London Metal Exchange (LME) to the futures markets at the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), copper prices are fluctuating sharply at high levels—keeping the entire global industrial chain on edge. At the heart of this ongoing struggle lies a critical question: Is the world’s copper supply on the verge of becoming scarce? 
Supply side: Mines struggle to increase production, with frequent unexpected incidents.
According to the latest semi-annual report on global copper mining companies released by Minmetals Securities, the combined output of 24 leading copper mining enterprises worldwide in the first half of 2025 reached 7.41 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. However, this growth rate has noticeably slowed down compared to 2024. More notably, guidance for second-half production from these top companies has been significantly lowered to just 1.7%, resulting in an overall reduction of approximately 114,000 tons. Meanwhile, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. has cut production at its Grasberg mine by 200,000 tons due to a mudslide incident, while Chile's state-owned Codelco has also revised downward its production targets amid declining ore grades. These developments, coupled with the ongoing global trend of declining average copper ore grades, have sharply intensified supply-side pressures.
“Copper mining has entered an era of ‘high costs and low growth.’” Experts from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) noted that global copper production is projected to rise by 2.3% in 2025, reaching 23.5 million tons—but this figure could be further adjusted due to project delays and resource depletion. For instance, Panama’s Cobre Panama mine, despite holding a substantial 14-million-ton inventory, has yet to reach an agreement on restarting operations; meanwhile, Congo (Kinshasa)’s Kamoa-Kakula mine, though planning to expand production, is currently grappling with critical infrastructure bottlenecks.
Demand Side: The "Copper Hunger" Amidst the New Energy Craze
In stark contrast to the sluggish supply side, demand is experiencing explosive growth. According to ICSG data, global refined copper consumption is projected to rise by 2.4% in 2025—but the actual growth rate could easily surpass this forecast. The new energy vehicle sector has emerged as the biggest "copper black hole": each electric car consumes up to 83 kilograms of copper, four times more than a conventional gasoline-powered vehicle. By 2025, global sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 25 million units, adding an estimated 2 million tons of copper demand—just from this single segment alone.
The photovoltaic and wind power sectors are also experiencing robust demand for copper. Each gigawatt of PV capacity requires 500–800 tons of copper, and global new installations are expected to reach 480 GW by 2025. Meanwhile, each gigawatt of wind power capacity consumes 300–600 tons of copper, with an additional 182 GW of new installations projected during the same period. Even more striking is the rapid growth in data center construction—on average, a single ultra-large-scale data center uses as much as 58 tons of copper. By 2025, global copper demand from data centers is anticipated to surge to between 500,000 and 1.2 million tons.
"Copper has emerged as a 'strategic metal' in the energy transition," Goldman Sachs analysts stated bluntly in their latest report. They noted that the global structure of copper demand is undergoing a fundamental shift: while demand from traditional sectors (such as construction and home appliances) is declining, dropping from 60% in 2018 to 45% by 2025, demand from the renewable energy sector is surging, climbing from 15% to 35% over the same period.
Inventory and Prices: Low Inventory Supports High Price Levels
As of mid-October 2025, LME copper stocks stood at just 137,000 tonnes, a 22% drop compared to the same period in 2024; meanwhile, copper inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to 85,000 tonnes, marking the second consecutive day of decline. Globally, visible stock levels have reached historically low levels, serving as a key factor underpinning copper prices.
In terms of pricing, copper prices experienced multiple rounds of increases in 2025. In early October, the LME copper price briefly reached a peak of $11,350 per ton. Although prices subsequently adjusted due to macroeconomic uncertainties, institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley remain generally bullish on the outlook. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 copper price target to $12,000 per ton, while UBS forecasts that copper prices could climb further to a range of $10,000–$11,000 per ton in 2025.
“The current copper market is characterized by a ‘tight mines, loose smelting’ dynamic,” noted analysts at Minmetals Securities. They pointed out that copper mine supply growth remains sluggish, while smelting capacity remains relatively ample, resulting in tight supplies of copper concentrates but a more relaxed availability of refined copper. This market structure is unlikely to shift anytime soon and is expected to persist until 2026.
China's Role: From "Import Dependence" to "Global Leadership"
In this global battle for copper resources, Chinese companies have particularly stood out. In the first half of 2025, Chinese copper producers achieved a year-on-year production growth rate as high as 17%, making them the primary contributors to the increase in global copper supply. Companies like Zijin Mining and China Minmetals Resources have leveraged technological innovation and overseas acquisitions to achieve breakthroughs in both output and cost efficiency.
Zijin Mining achieved a mineral copper production of 830,000 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a 5% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, its mineral copper sales cost stood at 23,000 yuan per tonne, down 1.4% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, Minmetals Resources benefited from the stable operation of its Las Bambas copper mine, posting an 11% year-on-year rise in copper production during the third quarter.
"Chinese copper companies are reshaping the global copper industry landscape," industry experts commented. Chinese firms are not only catching up with their overseas counterparts in terms of production volume but are also demonstrating clear advantages in cost control, technological innovation, and sustainable development. For instance, Antofagasta is testing the Cuprochlor-T technology at its Zaldivar mine, which is expected to significantly boost the recovery rate of low-grade ores once it goes into operation in 2028. Meanwhile, First Quantum has already deployed a low-energy-consumption rail conveyor system at its Sentinel mine, projected to cut energy usage by 50% to 70%.
The future Development: Shortage Alerts and Long-Term Opportunities
Based on comprehensive data from multiple sources, the global copper market in 2025 will likely maintain a "tight balance between supply and demand," but could shift toward a shortage by 2026. According to ICSG forecasts, the global refined copper market is expected to face a shortfall of 150,000 tons in 2026, reversing the current supply-demand dynamics.
"Long-term demand for copper remains fundamentally positive, and the tight supply situation is likely to persist over the coming period," noted Minmetals Securities in its latest research report. As the energy transition and electrification processes continue to advance, copper's strategic value as a critical raw material will only become more pronounced. For investors, copper mining companies, new-energy materials firms, and leading copper-processing enterprises deserve close attention. Meanwhile, companies across the industry chain should proactively manage price volatility risks by employing tools such as hedging and securing resources through long-term agreements.
In this global battle over copper resources, a clear signal is emerging: copper is truly running out. And this looming supply crisis could very well propel the global copper industry into a new cycle of prosperity.
